It’s a Cinderella story: a plucky little underdog football team sports its best defensive and offensive lines, takes advantage of the surprise factor, and wins big, paying off $300 to $400 for every dollar bet on them. Of course, the Cinderella story rarely comes true, in part because the guys who set the lines know what they’re doing. Imagine, though, if you had a way of looking over the college football bets and Vegas football bets lines and picking out the few games in each season where the heavily discounted underdog comes out hard and slams the favorite. Imagine if you could look over the football picks for this week and size up the long odds underdogs who are the most likely to pull it out and pay off with a big win. UFA
It’s not impossible, especially early in the season. That’s because most of the Vegas football bets are running lines based on last year’s stats and performances. They’re figuring the teams that had the worst defense last year will have the worst defense this year, and the most winning teams are most likely to keep right on winning. For the most part, their information will be accurate – but there are always cases where the public perception – which is where a lot of the line action comes from – hasn’t quite caught up with the difference made by a new coach, a new player or some serious practice hours over the summer.
The secret of picking longshots that will be winning football bets isn’t so difficult. Simply look for teams that are better on the field than they look on paper. Compare the underdog’s actual record to date with the odds being offered. Is it a team that’s faced off a big winner from last year and won? Is there a line on a game where the teams are relatively equal, but the odds make the game look completely unbalanced? The right bet on that game could plump up your bank nicely.
Here’s the thing. Early in the season, many football bettors are still making their decisions based on last year’s stats. The books know they have to increase the odds to balance the betting – but those long odds tend to scare off a lot of bettors, which has the tendency to increase those odds even further. In the end, even a small bet on a big underdog can offer a huge payoff.
Of course, betting long odds won’t pay off in every circumstance, or even in most of them. It’s important that you do your homework – check out the winning football picks for this week and read the analysis carefully. You’re looking for games where the teams are actually pretty well matched, but the books have had to put a higher number on the underdog to balance the betting.